MR WHY

I am
Wang Hongyang

Wechat Official Account
Find fun things here!

(N+1) Trends by CB Insights

(N+1) Trends are technologies, business models and distribution innovations that you sould watch for in the next 5 to 10 years.

Contents from CB Insights innovation summit — PPT can be found here, transcript of Anand Sanwal, co-founder and CEO of CB Insights, can be found here.

#1: Customized babies

  • Prenatal genetic testing has become cheaper more accurate and can be done earlier.
    • Test for Trisomy 21, 18, 13: ~$1,000 in 9-10 weeks of ~99% accuracy.
  • Step 1: Identity Disorders, Step 2: Fix them (Gene-Editing)
    • Cheaper and more comprehensive prenatal testing let us identify the disorders, but developments in CRISPR (gene-editing technology) will help us fix them.
  • GENE-EDITING IS BECOMING A REALITY
    • Several companies have successfully raised capital and hit public markets as use of CRISPR has demonstrated that gene-editing is no longer science fiction.
  • In the future, we will choose the traits for our babies
  • The line of 'disorder' is blurry
    • What is considered a disadvantage today (medical disorders) could be different tomorrow. If the rest of the population increases their intellect via genetic modification, a disadvantage would be "natural" intelligence.

#2: Robotic companions

  • Bridging the gap
    • While Amazon has proven its Echo device's value as a personal home assistant, personal robots remains a nascent technology...
  • Where we've been
    • Major corporations have been working on personal robots since the ‘80s...
  • Growing investor interest
    • Investment activity to private personal robotics startups has increased markedly since 2012, albeit the field remains small. In 2016, $339M was deployed across 16 deals.
  • What's around the corner?
    • Two clear use cases for personal robotic companions.
  • CHILDREN
    • Robots show potential for emotional companionship, and gamified education.
      • Facial recognition: Uniquely tailored interaction based on user.
      • Nanny mode: Lesson planning, progress reporting, predictive analytics, health, diet, sleep and media consumption management.
    • E.g.: CASPER - Hospital robot companion. Researchers from the University of Lisbon and Project Monarch are developing a robot to entertain and lift the spirits of children in hospital.
  • ELDERLY
    • By the year 2050, the percent of people aged 65 and older worldwide will double. 17% of worldwide population, or 1.6 billion people will be over the age of 65.
    • FILLING THE HEALTH SERVICES VOID: Robot-assisted home care
    • Mental health & dementia: Robotic companionship to solve for late stage life regimen and health vitaIs companionship and memory lapse
    • Prescription regimen & vitals: Nursing, pharmaceutical regimen and health vitaIs monitoring

#3: The rise of personalized food

  • FROM PLANT PROTEIN To LAB-DESIGNED FOODS?
    • Smart Money VCs which can act as industry bellwethers - have increased investment activity in engineered food, mainly meat and dairy substitutes.
    • The rush of interest and funding to the space could lead to new developments in food engineering.
  • In the last four years, the price of lab-cultured meat dropped by >99%
    • $325,000 (Cost of one cultured burger in 2013) VS $11 (cost of one cultured burger in 2015, though not yet commercially scaled)
  • CAMPBELL SOUP INVESTS IN HABIT:
    • DNA-based personalized diet startup
  • INDIVIDUALLY TAILORED DIETS ARE COMING.
    • Lab-generated food will be customized to an individuals’ needs. Doctors or at-home blood tests will steer shoppers (or are they patients) toward specific products, mitigating the need for medication & boosting individual health.
    • Beyond today’s choice between 92% or 98% lean beef, one could choose between burgers enhanced with Vitamin A, Vitamin D, or dozens of other options.

#4: 3D-printed housing

  • HOUSING: WHERE ARE WE NOW?
    • The current market shows a number of technology tools working to drive down the cost of housing and the difficulty of construction. Consumers increasingly unwilling to put up with the headaches of home ownership and remodeling.
  • PREFAB ALREADY PLAYS A KEY ROLE IN TRANSFORMING CONSTRUCTION
    • While prefab and modular housing is not a new concept, new players are seeing investor interest. Several startups are competing in this area, for both the low and high end.
  • 3D PRINTING IS THE NEXT STEP:
    • In the last 3 years, industrial 3D printing has made significant progress: A beta 3D printer can print 10 homes in one day
  • 3D printing has already built medical devices, consumer products, and even buses.
  • COST BENEFITS TO 3D PRINTING
    • Developments in 3D printing in addition to robotic construction and provide significant cost benefits to the entire housing process.
    • Affordability and quality not necessarily at odds with the right combination of tech.

#5: Solar roads

  • Since 1977, the price of solar panels has dropped by >99%
    • $76 (Price per watt in 1977) VS $0.36 (Price per watt in Dec 2016)
  • E.G.
    • Limited trails are emerging in the US: A DOT-backed startup has designed lit, heated road cells
    • A (very) short stretch in europe with a 1 kilometer active highway
  • AN ENERGY REVOLUTION BENEATH OUR FEET.
    • Although currently costly and modestly efficient, as solar roadways become economical to deploy at scale, they become an integral part of a clean energy solution for the next century.
    • These roadways could be self-heated and lit, and could even be used to wirelessly deliver power to energy vehicles driving over it. Widespread use of these roads would obviate the need for large patches of real estate for utility-scale solar plants, especially in densely populated areas.

#6: Ephemeral retail

  • PHYSICAL SPACES INCREASINGLY IRRELEVANT
    • Retail spent the past century organizing around the automobile. We'll spend the next 100 years re-urbanizing, with smart phones and the internet as the primary means of engagement." — By Andy Dunn, Founder & CEO, Bonobos
  • NEW MODELS OF DISTRIBUTION ON THE RISE
    • The Uber-based convenience store — CARGO
    • The high-end pop-up store — withme
    • The next-gen vending machine — Byte
  • AMAZON ANNOUNCES ‘AMAZON GO' STORE: Uses facial recognition to process payments
  • THE ULTIMATE IN MOBILE DISTRIBUTION: SNAPCHAT LAUNCHES ‘SNAPBOTS'
    • Snap Inc. released its Spectacles in limited distribution last fall via automated "Snapbot" vending machines.
    • Snapbot machines pop up in various locations for short periods of time.
  • MOBILE & TEMPORARY STORES CAN REPLACE BRICK-AND-MORTAR RETAIL
    • Looking at Snap’s Snapbots, Amazon’s Amazon Go pilot, and other examples, down the road we see:
      • Plug-and-play solutions for retailers to set up temporary stores without staff, outfitted with beacons, sensors, and other tracking technologies
      • Automated checkout through facial recognition and/or geo-fencing
      • Robotic store assistants and drone delivery
      • Retailers using physical stores as data collection centers in addition to being sources of revenue

#7: Enhanced workers

  • IRONMAN SUITS? NOT A DISTANT DREAM
    • ”Irohrhah suits... which were only seen in movies, are expected to emerge in the near future. The Hyundai Motor Group is developing a wearable robot with the aim of oommeroialization." — By Hyundai Motor Group blog
  • The power of exoskeletons in industries
    • Increased safety + Enhanced Strength = More productivity
  • From military to industrial applications:
    • GE, Schlumberger invest in Sarcos $15.6M in SeriesA
    • Industry applications: Nuclear plant inspections, petrochemical, welding, manufacturing, disaster recovery
  • POWER CLOTHING = ELECTRIC MUSCLES
    • Horizons Ventures, Global Brain back spinout Superflex
  • Human Ingenuity + Robotic Augmentation
    • Robots Will augment - not take over for humans in industry
    • Zero accident workplaces
    • Older workers and people with physical disabilities can still participate in jobs they were previously unable to

#8: Lab-engineered luxury

  • MODERN MEADOW: $53M IN FUNDING FOR LAB-CRAFTED LEATHER
    • "The 20th century... facilitated a generation of materials that came out of the petrochemical industry - like DuPont creating Lycra - [now] the 21st century is about biotechnology." — By Suzanne Lee, COO, Modern Meadows
  • AVA WINERY AIMS TO REVERSE ENGINEER TOP WINES
    • With $3M in disclosed funding, Ava Winery aims to create lab-synthesized wine — actual molecule-by-molecule clones of specific vintages of the world’s best wines throughout history.
  • ENGINEERING CAN TRANSFORM LUXURY
    • Synthetic diamonds, Wines and liquors, leathers, and other luxury goods may soon be indistinguishable from the real thing - not just visually, but down to the molecular level.
    • Of course, part of the lure of luxury is the authenticity. With the growth of synthetic luxury items, traditional luxury companies may try to move even higher-end to differentiate themselves.

#9: 'Botroots' movements

  • BOTS ARE ALREADY SPREADING LIKE WILDFIRE IN INDUSTRY
    • Corporations and startups alike are rushing into bots as a positive force to improve their services and overaIIs customer satisfaction.
    • However, they could also be used for more nefarious purposes.
  • WE’VE ALREADY SEEN DARKER SIGNS EMERGING
    • 2016 saw the rise of simple bots used to promote misinformation, most prominently in the US presidential election (which also featured foreign and non-state actors).
    • Though their impact is still uncertain, the trend is undeniable.
  • NEXT-GEN BOTS COULD BEND PUBLIC DISCOURSE
    • The natural consequence of improving AI (and specifically conversational intelligence) will result in bots that are indistinguishable from actual human beings.
    • If such bots become readily accessible, corporations, governments, or even non-state actors could harness battalions of them, masquerading as grassroots movements of real people to advance agendas on political and economic issues.
    • Companies could also use these "botroot" movements to influence trending brands and products (already seen in today’s simple manipulation of product reviews).

#10: Microb-made chemicals

  • PETROCHEMICALS ARE USED IN NEARLY EVERY INDUSTRY
    • Plastics, Ammonia, Cleaning Products, Methanol, industrial Chemicals, Fertilizer, Rubber, Synthetic Fibers, Dyes, Aromatics
  • CHEMICALS DERIVED FROM PETROLEUM: OIL VOLATILITY = CHEMICALS VOLATILITY
  • OIL AND GAS CORPORATES ARE LOOKING
    • Many oil and gas companies are not just looking at ways to improve oil drilling and exploration capacity but in deriving new petroleum based chemicals, biofuels, etc.
  • Microbial factories have demonstrated scale, increasing chemical production by >15x
    • 1.6 grams (Artemisinic Acid yielded by modified yeast in 2006) VS 25 grams (Artemisinic Add yielded by modified yeast in 2013)
  • GINKGO BIOWORKS CAN EVEN CREATE EXTRACTS PETROCHEMICALS COULD NOT
  • SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY WILL CREATE NEW SUPPLY CHAINS FOR CHEMICALS
    • Re-engineered microbes and yeast will be able to create necessary chemicals and petroleum-related products independent of petroleum itself. These products will be independent of petroleum pricing shocks, more scalable + cheaper, and remove many parts of the supply chain and refining process.

#11: Neuroprosthetics

  • DEFINING NEUROPROSTHETICS

    1. Devices integrated with the human nervous system.
    2. Prosthetics that amplify normal biological functions, not

      merely substituting for them.

    3. The prosthetic is also able to translate external stimuli into

      perceptions.

    4. Interchangeability: Future customers will seek out

      replacement limbs and switch them out frequently for added
      features.

  • In the last five years, research seeking to connect neuroscience and robotics has exploded

    • From 483 research articles in PubMed that mention neuroprosthetics to 56% percent of articles published in the past 5 years
  • GOOGLE PATENTS BIONIC EYE FOR PERPETUAL PERFECT VISION
  • SECOND SIGHT GOES PUBLIC IN 2014:
    • Company’s wearables are the first FDA-approved prosthesis intended to restore vision.
  • 3D Printed Limbs scale down the cost of prosthetics
    • $5,000-50,000 (For Prosthetic Legs In America) VS $100 For Prosthetic Legs by startup SHC Design
  • CUSTOM, INTERCHANGEABLE PROSTHETICS
    • As prosthetics improve and exceed existing limbs, amputees and the disabled will no longer be disadvantaged and might even be more capable at specific jobs with enhanced limbs.
    • People with arthritis and joint pains could opt for replacement limbs, and some may even opt into it without any existing conditions. Advancements in 3D printing make it easier to create entirely new, usable limbs with different functions as well.

#12: Instant expretise

  • COULD WE DOWNLOAD WHATEVER SKILLS WE WANTED?
  • HOW TO BECOME AN INSTANT EXPERT
    • MACHINE VISION — Analyze the data of your surroundings
    • AR OVERLAY — Use augmented reality to overlay step-by-step process
    • IN-EAR GUIDANCE — Audio based coaching and guidance as you progress
  • The pieces are coming together
  • MACHINE ASSISTANCE + DIAGNOSIS IN FOR EQUIPMENT
    • ScopeAR has partnered with Caterpillar to use AR to help mantain equipment and solve problems
  • REMOTE SURGERIES
    • Surgeries could be guided remotely in emergency situations or for complex cases
  • DO-IT-YOURSELF MAINTENANCE
    • Instead of calling a handyman for every home project or repair, AR and remote help could guide you through it.

#13: AI ghosts

  • DIGITAL FOOTPRINT TELLS EVERYTHING
    • ”One of our most surprising finding is that we could even predict whether your parents were divorced or not, based on your Facebook likes." — The Stanford News Service, Michal Kosinski, Asst Prof. in Organizational Behavior
  • Recreating ourselves with AI
    • Digital Footprint + AI = Digital replicas of ourselves
  • YOUR LOVED ONE'S PERSONALITY IN A HUMANOID ROBOT
    • United Therapeutics CEO Martine Rothblatt commissioned a humanoid robot, Bina48, modeled after Rothblatt's Wife, Bina Aspen. The robot was created after "more than one hundred hours in compiling all of her memories, feelings, and beliefs."
  • Bina48, and several other humanoid robots were developed by startup Hanson Robotics, which is creating robots with "expressiveness, aesthetics, and interactivity" using AI.
  • THE FUTURE: WHERE YOUR LOVED ONES LIVE FOREVER
  • Living with the dead: The future of interactions
    • Personal interactions may cure or augment grief
    • Social networks may need to regulate the presence of bots replacing dead users
    • The practice of getting advice from the dead may force marketers to rethink their messaging

FUTURE LITERACY: If you know what to expect in the future, you can plan for it. This is about winning future markets.

19

分享本文:

TOC